Monday, January 19, 2009

Rurban’ shift in Maharashtra - Rural constituencies will not be king-makers in coming elections

On the threshold of another general election, the political scene in Maharashtra has been vitiated by anger against the government and state administration in the wake of the 26/11 terror attack, regional and caste-based chauvinism, downturn in economy, failed agriculture and farmers’ suicides. Battered by these factors and weakened (as usual) by internal squabbles, brave-faced politicians are trying to gather their wits together. Already confused by the volatile socio-economic scene, the parties are facing a formidable challenge in the form of the delimitation of constituencies. The restructuring of constituencies for the first time in the state threatens to widen the urban-rural divide in Maharashtra politics. The latest electoral statistics indicate a clear urban and semi-urban dominance. The rural vote has all along dominated successive governments, except during the 1995-1999 saffron stint.

The rural voter has given way now to urban and rural-urban, or "rurban" voter. This sea-change must be seen against the background of the increased contribution of the services sector – mainly infrastructure, housing, hospitality, infotech, telecommunications and entertainment – to the state’s economy. It reached the 59 per cent mark in 2006-07. The state’s economy is no more as dependent on the agriculture sector as it was. The contribution of the non-agriculture sector has grown, further diluting the influence of the absolute rural constituencies on the state’s power equations. This can be viewed as a paradigm shift. With the power base shifting to urban areas, the problems in rural areas will magnify. The challenges of uncontrolled migration to cities; the widening gap between the Westernised lifestyles of urban communities and the austere life in villages; and the aspirations of the rural people to live the exalted lifestyles of their city folks will be diffiult to meet.

Urban politics will draw its sustenance and strength from the service sector. The urban scene in diffeerent geographical pockets will also differ sharply from each other. The situation there will produce perplexing problems. The 2002 delimitation of constituencies clearly placed Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik and Nagpur districts in a position of control over the politics, power and economy of the rest of the districts. Urban slums – which accommodate a third of urban population – will influence electoral politics in the coming general elections. They have played a crucial role in delimitation and creation of new constituencies. The expansion of the service sector has offered new revenue avenues to the urban local self-governing bodies. Mumbai and Thane districts have as many as seven municipal corporations and Western Maharashtra has six. The remaining nine are spread over North Maharashtra, Marthwada and Vidarbha. Urban Maharashtra will certainly draw on its economic and political strengths to dominate its rural counterparts through these systems.

Sakaal Times, Pune